Nickel Salt Prices Slightly Rebound, High-Grade NPI Fundamentals Under Pressure [SMM Nickel Morning Brief]

1.9Nickel Morning Briefing

Refined Nickel:

Spot Premiums/Discounts: Today, the mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan No.1 nickel is 3,300-3,600 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 3,450 yuan/mt, down by 100 yuan. The Russian nickel premium/discount quotation range is -200 to 100 yuan/mt, with an average premium/discount of -50 yuan/mt, down by 50 yuan.

Futures Market: In the morning, nickel prices rose by over 1%, increasing by 1,820 yuan to 125,030 yuan, with a decline of 1.4%.

With the futures market rising, Jinchuan brand nickel premiums dropped back slightly, with an average premium of 3,450 yuan/mt. Demand side, entering January, the overall market transactions remained sluggish recently. Supply side, top-tier enterprises have no plans for production cuts in January, and overall production supply remains sufficient. Under the relatively loose supply and demand situation, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate downward in the short term.

Nickel Sulphate Price Spread: Today, nickel briquette prices are 124,400-124,900 yuan/mt, up by 2,125 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day's spot price. Nickel sulphate remains at a discount to refined nickel.

Nickel Sulphate:

OnJanuary 8, the SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index price was 26,402 yuan/mt, with the quotation range for battery-grade nickel sulphate at 26,010-26,950 yuan/mt, and the average price rose slightly compared to yesterday.

In terms of cost, LME nickel prices rebounded today to $15,420/mt (Ni contained) due to the impact of Indonesian macro policies, strengthening immediate cost support. Currently, the immediate profit for producing nickel sulphate using MHP has returned to a loss, while the profit margin for producing nickel sulphate using high-grade nickel matte still exists. On the demand side, precursor plants have mostly completed nickel salt stockpiling for January, and market inquiry activity remains weak. On the supply side, the coefficient for salt plant quotations and transactions has risen slightly. Finished product inventories at salt plants remain at low levels. Overall, under the backdrop of weak demand from both buyers and sellers, nickel sulphate prices are expected to remain stable.

Nickel Pig Iron (NPI):

OnJanuary 8, the SMM 8-12% high-grade NPI average price was 934.5 yuan/mtu (ex-factory, tax included), down by 0.5 yuan/mtu compared to the previous working day. Supply side, domestically, high-grade NPI prices fluctuated downward, and with traditional smelters facing expanded losses, production is expected to weaken. In Indonesia, current raw material inventories at NPI smelters are relatively sufficient, and some smelters maintain partial profitability. The weak demand for high-grade nickel matte persists, and the phenomenon of converting high-grade nickel matte to high-grade NPI production still exists. Indonesian production is expected to continue growing. Demand side, stainless steel mills have entered a seasonal maintenance period, with production weakening. Demand for NPI from steel mills has decreased MoM, and top-tier enterprises have already signed a large number of long-term contracts for raw materials. Spot order demand in the market has weakened, but current cost support for NPI remains firm. High-grade NPI prices are expected to remain stable with a weak trend.

Stainless Steel:

OnJanuary 8, stainless steel futures prices continued to rise slightly, while spot prices remained weak and temporarily stabilized at low levels, halting the downward trend. Additionally, east China steel mills raised 304 prices by 200 yuan, improving market expectations and triggering a bullish sentiment after hitting bottom. In the morning, 304 cold-rolled prices in Wuxi were quoted at 12,800-13,000 yuan/mt, 304 HRC prices in Wuxi were quoted at 12,300-12,500 yuan/mt. 316L cold-rolled prices in Wuxi were quoted at 23,600-23,800 yuan/mt. 201J1 cold-rolled prices in Wuxi were quoted at 7,400-7,700 yuan/mt. 430 cold-rolled prices in Wuxi were quoted at 7,150-7,450 yuan/mt. At 10:30 a.m., the SHFE SS2503 contract price was 12,950 yuan/mt, and Wuxi stainless steel spot premiums were 20-220 yuan/mt (spot trimmed edge = mill edge + 170 yuan/mt).